Bayes theorem of probability pdf

Close suggestions Search Search. User Settings. Skip carousel. Carousel Previous. Carousel Next. What is Scribd? Explore Ebooks. Bestsellers Editors' Picks All Ebooks. Explore Audiobooks. Bestsellers Editors' Picks All audiobooks. Explore Magazines. Editors' Picks All magazines. Explore Podcasts All podcasts. Difficulty Beginner Intermediate Advanced. Explore Documents. Bayes's Theorem. Uploaded by varunjajoo. Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate? Report this Document. Flag for inappropriate content. Download now. Original Title: Bayes's Theorem. Related titles. Carousel Previous Carousel Next.

Jump to Page. Search inside document. Developed by Thomas Bayes in the 18th Century. It is an extension of conditional probability. Documents Similar To Bayes's Theorem. Teena Thapar. Veronica Sanders. Eisar Khan. Shyn Cabagnot. Juiced-IN it. Rahul Andoria. Marco Chu.

Leopold Laset. Denisse BA. Anonymous yhhOSE. Nikhil Singh. Anonymous nakKjOA. Ujjwal Tiwari. Anonymous L4bqaG2c. He revolves the cylinder and then pulls the trigger. Luckily, it is an empty slot. Ram has an option either to pull the trigger again or to spin the cylinder first and then pull the trigger. What must Ram choose to maximize his chances of survival?

Solution : Let us number the slots as 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6. Let us assume that slots 1 and 2 contain the bullets. The various combinations when the trigger is pressed continuously are 1,2 , 2,3 , 3,4 , 4,5 , 5,6 and 6,1. Among the 6 combinations mentioned above, 3 combinations 3,4 , 4,5 and 5,6 have both the slots empty. P A represents the probability of the first slot being empty. The empty slot can be one among 3, 4, 5 or 6. If Ram prefers to spin the cylinder, he has P A chances of survival Choosing an empty slot among the given slots.

Hence, Ram must prefer to press the trigger immediately without revolving the cylinder as chances of survival will be more. Let us now have a look at very famous problem on conditional probability.

This is known as the Monty Hall problem. There is a game show in which there are three doors. There is a car behind one door and there is nothing behind the other two doors.

After you pick a door, the host opens one of the other two doors and shows you that it is empty. Now, he gives you two options — either stick with your initial selection or switch to the other door.

What is the optimal strategy that should be followed? Will you switch or remain with the same door? Let W1, W2, W3 be the events that the car is behind door 1, 2, 3 respectively. Let A, B and C be the events that the host opens doors 1, 2 and 3 respectively. Now, The probability that the host opens the third door provided the car is in the second door.

The probability that the host opens the third door provided the car is in the first door. Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. Submit Code. Enter verification code:. Send verification text to phone:. Gave the wrong phone number? Edit Number. Send Your phone no has been successfully verified. Set a different course as default. Sign in. Log into your account. Forgot your password?